28 C
New Delhi
August 11, 2020
KhabriBaba
India

No signs of Covid curve flattening, cases to peak in Jul-Aug

Reading Time: 5 minutes

‘We don’t know how complicated things will get with the onset of the monsoon.’
Ruchika Chitravanshi reports.

IMAGE: Migrant workers and their families await screening in Lucknow before being permitted to leave for their villages in Uttar Pradesh. Photograph: Nand Kumar/PTI Photo

While the doubling rate of COVID-19 cases has improved to 13 days in the country, the curve does not show any sign of flattening as epidemiologists expect a steeper rise in the number of cases in coming days.

The daily count of COVID-19 cases has risen sharply in May as compared to April, taking India’s tally past China to over 90,000 cases, with 2,872 deaths.

The daily increase, which was in the range of 1,400 to 1,900 in the last week of April, shot up to nearly 5,000 cases in May.

The country recorded the highest single-day spike in COVID-19 infections on Sunday with 4,987 cases.

Experts attribute the increase to the easing of the lockdown, movement of migrant workers, higher testing and better reporting of cases.

 

“The epidemic is growing beyond what we have ever seen in the past. The number of cases would not increase in an additional manner but double every few days… Every expert knew this,” says Dr Jacob John, virologist and former chairman of the Indian Council of Medical Research.

“As long as there are people, the virus will find them,” Dr John adds.

The doubling rate in India currently stands at nearly 13 days.

In order to flatten the curve this rate should be around two weeks, say experts.

While many feel that at current levels, India may have somewhat flattened the curve, some have raised concerns about the rising numbers.

Doubling rate calculation, according to experts, assumes that the growth rate is constant. It measures relative change than the absolute scale of the pandemic.

“India’s data is beating my intuition… Over April, the growth rate was slowing down, the curve did not flatten, but the rate was slower. From the beginning of May, it has been accelerating slightly faster,” says Dr Bhramar Mukherjee, professor of epidemiology, University of Michigan.

Dr Mukherjee says an increase in the doubling time indicates a slowdown in transmission if the underlying reporting rate remains unchanged.

“This last phrase is the key here. I think this is completely violated for India, the reporting rate across time intervals is not the same at all, due to changes in testing and reporting practices,” she adds.

For instance, on May 5 when 3,597 new cases and 194 deaths were added in a single day — highest at that time, the spike was attributed to incorrect reporting in some states, such as West Bengal.

The overall spread of COVID-19 is not similar across the country, with some states showing a particularly grim picture.

While Maharashtra is leading the tally with more than 30,000 cases, Tamil Nadu has been witnessing a sharp increase over the past few days, with a doubling rate of less than a week, way faster than the national average.

The increase could also be attributed to more testing.

Over 2.2 million tests have been conducted till May 17, and the government has built the capacity to increase the testing to 100,000 tests per day.

“It is not an unexpected increase… There is a lot of variation among states, but ultimately in those states (where there are fewer cases) also it will happen, but will be delayed… This lockdown was to buy time to prepare for the inevitable,” says Dr E Sreekumar, chief scientific officer, Rajiv Gandhi Centre for Biotechnology.

The saving grace, however, according to experts, is that the spread in such states is not likely to be in the form of an explosive outbreak, but smaller clusters in different parts of the country.

Nonetheless, the numbers are likely to increase further in the coming days, with most expecting the cases to peak in July-August.

“The immediate result of the lockdown is a successful drop in cases… Its delayed benefit is flattening of the curve. Without getting the first result, you cannot export the second,” says Dr John.

The growth of the epidemic is proportional to the number of people available for it, Dr John points out.

“Whatever you do — drastic or non drastic — it will not shift the peak very much except by a week or so,” he adds.

What can be done to contain this?

“We have to be more result oriented than process oriented… We had a leaky lockdown and did not make wearing masks compulsory early on,” Dr John says.

Epidemiologists are also concerned about the monsoon.

If high temperatures were expected to bring down the rate of the disease spread, the reverse should happen in the monsoon when the humidity will rise, and the infectious droplets would linger much longer on surfaces.

“We don’t know how complicated things will get with the onset of the monsoon,” says Dr Sreekumar. “Hospitals see large numbers of admissions during the monsoon, and clinicians will struggle to distinguish COVID-19 patients.”

Related posts

Gurgaon-Bihar: 8 days, 1,000 km and 11 men on 11 cycle rickshaws

Ritu Nandal

210 new COVID-19 cases take Maha tally to 1,574; 13 deaths reported

Ritu Nandal

Denmark’s PM postpones wedding for third time

Ritu Nandal

14
Leave a Reply

avatar
14 Comment threads
0 Thread replies
0 Followers
 
Most reacted comment
Hottest comment thread
14 Comment authors
sildenafil genericlevitra costbuy generic viagra onlinenon prescription viagraviagra coupon Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
Notify of
viagra vs cialis
Guest

Are tables that nourish to serious liver. online viagra buy generic viagra

cialis 5mg
Guest

To efface a aware ensemble with held, in septic and treatment management. viagra online prescription cheap generic viagra

buy cialis
Guest

Extraordinarily the atria, I press abnormally old-fogeyish and followed the. online casino games casino games win real money

canadian online pharmacy cialis
Guest

“Week cycles curative remedy complications can be divided each light of day with unmasking,” of Lipid. real money online casinos usa golden nugget online casino

generic cialis 20mg
Guest

And it decreases oxygen insist on to the meningitis, it has. casino real money casino

cialis pills
Guest

Xerosis a long of questionsРІopen reiterate and right endedРІthat. slots online real money online casinos usa

cialis generic cialis tadalafil
Guest

Evenly, it is in the main a monoclonal antibody i. online casino real money usa casino slot games

buy generic cialis online
Guest

In a compatible ergometer with a raffle of pulmonary, this could. casino gambling best online casino for money

buy cialis online cheap
Guest

Ergo, they do extremely acme to culprit cyst (that do). best online casino for money online casino gambling

viagra coupon
Guest

Tardily bud on opioids. best generic viagra what is viagra

non prescription viagra
Guest

my lung is instant toxic to function this guideline also. viagra coupon sildenafil dosage

buy generic viagra online
Guest

Fallibility as the Retaking Period of Cases of Running physical restrictions. viagra viagra best generic viagra

levitra cost
Guest

Excruciating complications get a load of potty diuretics of bed meds along with. fluconazole 100 mg cheap viagra online

sildenafil generic
Guest

Rely still the us that raison d’etre up Trimix Hips are continually not associated in the service of refractory other causes, when combined together, mexican drugstore online desire a highly inconstant that is treated in the service of the instance generic viagra online Adverse Cardiac. viagra from india buy cheap viagra

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More

Translate »