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October 31, 2020
KhabriBaba
India

The 2019 Maharashtra elections sentiment meter

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The major players in Maharashtra are the ruling alliance Bharatiya Janata Party-Shiv Sena, which also includes Republican Party of India-Athawale, and the Opposition alliance of Congress-Nationalist Congress Party.

The BJP-Sena alliance won the 2014 assembly elections in the state winning 185 seats in the 288-member assembly.

The Devendra Fadnavis-led government in the state is most likely to get another term.

KhabriBaba Labs analysed the 2014 assembly election results to develop a Sentiment Meter for the 2019 battle in Maharashtra.

 

A mathematical model is used to calculate how seat distribution will be altered as sentiment/percentage of votes towards a contesting political party changes.

Based on the change, each constituency is marked with the winning party. A swing represents that the victory margin is close to the runner-up party.

The below graph is based only on 2014 assembly elections data, which shows that the BJP-Sena combine is likely to return to power with a bigger margin in the absence of a major vote swing towards the opposition parties.

The Congress-NCP alliance doesn’t seem to be able form a government even after a 10 per cent vote swing in its favour.

Move the pointer on the Sentiment Meter (depending on who you think will get more votes) towards the political parties to see how the outcome is likely to change.

For more data driven journalism, check out KhabriBaba Labs.

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