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October 25, 2020
KhabriBaba
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The 2019 Haryana election sentimeter is here

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The major players in Haryana are the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, the Opposition Congress and the Indian National Lok Dal of former chief minister Om Prakash Chautala.

The BJP won the 2014 assembly elections for the first time in the state winning 47 seats in the 90-member assembly.

With the opposition in disarray, and given the return of the BJP at the Centre with a bigger mandate in the Lok Sabha elections this year, the party is most likely to retain the state.

KhabriBaba Labs analysed the 2014 assembly election results to develop a Sentiment Meter for the 2019 battle in Haryana.

 

A mathematical model is used to calculate how seat distribution will be altered as sentiment/percentage of votes towards a contesting political party changes.

Based on the change, each constituency is marked with the winning party. A swing represents that the victory margin is close to the runner-up party.

The below graph is based only on 2014 assembly elections data, which shows that the BJP is likely to return to power in the absence of a major vote swing towards the other two parties.

The Congress doesn’t seem to be able form a government on its own even after a 10 per cent vote swing in its favour.

Move the pointer on the Sentiment Meter (depending on who you think will get more votes) towards the political parties to see how the outcome is likely to change.

For more data driven journalism, check out KhabriBaba Labs.

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